Yields of the Night Vigil

by Anjali Appadurai

I started this post at 4am, and worked on it intermittently until now – 9:30am. No new LCA text, no sleep. These ministers worked through the night, and through the documents they released from their “indaba” at a couple of different intervals, we have some meagre updates.

The indaba high-level consultations convened at midnight and are still going strong, with three draft texts produced thus far. They took a short break at around 2:30 but are back to work. Tonight, three new indaba texts were produced, plus an options table, a KP document and a “big picture” text. Discussed below is the “big picture” and the KP text.

Big picture:

The final LCA text was supposed to have been released at 6am, but it’s 7:30 and we’re still waiting. Basically, leaked documents show this “big picture” for the texts so far:

-          The text would end the AWG-LCA at COP18, or at least render it irrelevant because it would set up a parallel track under the Convention

-          The Bali Action Plan will be incomplete by COP18 but LCA will end anyway (ie – a broken commitment)

-          The LCA would be replaced with a new body of the name [XX] thus far

-          This new body would be the framework for creating a new treaty or protocol to address the same concerns as the LCA

-          The new treaty would include the major pillars of the Bali Action Plan (references to finance, technology transfer, capacity building, adaptation), but would not be the same in terms of content

-          There is no reference in the text to the principles of the Convention (common but differentiated and historical responsibility, equity)

-          The text would “call” for a process to develop a legally-binding agreement. Simply being legally-binding is not sufficient to ensure action. There needs to be substance.

 KP

The KP outcome is grim.

-          No second commitment period this year.

-          Rather, the mandate of the AWG-KP is pushed back

-          The text “invites” KP Parties (which now excludes Canada, Russia, Japan, in addition to the already absent US) to “offer” their pledges in an annex to the decision

-          In order for there to be ratification of the Protocol for a second commitment period, Parties must amend and ratify the original Annexes and full text. The text of the Annex B is totally different, and a 2CP cannot be achieved if this Annex B stays.

-          Does not include any text to say that Parties should start to apply the rules laid out in the document before it enters into force officially

-          There is no shared vision; ie, the text allows Japan, Canada and Russia to escape their obligations under KP. Aussie and NZ are only “considering” offering pledges.

-          This text provides a perfect backdoor with a red carpet for Annex 1 countries to make the Great Escape from their commitments

-          Loopholes and weak wording allows A1 countries to increase emissions.

 

 

 

 

Pablo Solon: Durban=Kyoto Zombie

The infamous and unbelievably brilliant ex-Bolivian negotiator commenting on the earlier version of the KP text and the overall Durban disaster. The climate regime is crumbling around us..

From Pablo Solon (a rush translation): A few moments ago we found out the decisions that they have been cooking behind the scenes. In Durban they won’t approve a second period of commitments of the Kyoto Protocol. This will happen at the end of next year: in COP18. In Durban they will only take note of the draft amendments and the “intention” of rich countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto Protocol will lose its heart. The promises of reductions by rich countries will be incredibly low until 2020 and will lead to a temperature increase of more than 4 degrees C. The Kyoto Protocol will turn into a Zombie without a global figure for reduction of emissions by industrialised countries, and will carry on walking until 2020 just so that carbon markets don’t disappear. In 2020 it will enter into effect in “a new legal framework appliable to everyone”. By everyone, they mean diluting the difference between developed and developing countries, between countries responsible for climate change and those who victims. The US managed to eliminate any mention of a “binding” agreement. That means the “new legal framework” will be an empty gesture without any effect. This will become known as the lost decade of the fight against climate change. Genocide and ecocide will reach proportions that we have not yet seen. The Great Escape by the Rich has turned into the Great Swindle.

For any Spanish speakers:

Hace unos minutos se dieron a conocer los dos proyectos de decisión que se cocinaban entre bambalinas. En Durban no se aprobará el segundo periodo de compromisos del protocolo de Kioto. Ello recién ocurriría a fines del próximo año: en la COP 18.  En Durban sólo se tomará nota de los “borradores” de enmiendas y de la “intención” de los países ricos en relación a sus objetivos de reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El Protocolo de Kioto perderá su corazón.  Las promesas de reducción de los países ricos serán bajísimas hasta el 2020 y nos llevarán a un incremento de la temperatura de más de 4 C. El Protocolo de Kioto se transformará en un Zombi sin una cifra global de reducción de emisiones de los países industrializados, y seguirá deambulando hasta el 2020 solo para permitir que los mercados de carbono no desaparezcan. El 2020 entrará en vigencia un “nuevo marco legal aplicable para todos”. “Para todos” quiere decir que se diluirá la diferencia entre países desarrollados y en desarrollo, entre países responsables y países victimas del cambio climático. Estados Unidos logra eliminar cualquier mención a un acuerdo “vinculante”. Es decir que ese “nuevo marco legal” será un saludo a la bandera. La Unión Europea deja que conviertan en Zombi al Protocolo de Kioto.  Esta será conocida como la década perdida del cambio climático. El genocidio y ecocidio alcanzarán proporciones nunca antes vistas. El Gran Escape se ha convertido en la Gran Estafa.

and the last night bleeds into an extra day

by Trudi Zundel

Quick update from the conference center.

Civil society was not in fact kicked out of the ICC–after some negotiations of our own with the secretariat, it was agreed that we could stay if we were working, but that those who were sleeping would be asked to leave. It’s going to be a long night for Joe, Anjali, and I, the last ones standing–Nathan, Graham and Julian left on an errand and weren’t allowed to return until 7am.

In between subtly curling up under these desks to sleep among the UN computer cords–last-ditch acts of rebellion–we’ll be blogging and tweeting away with whatever mental coherence we have left!

 

 

The last night draws on

by Samuli Sinisalo

The texts just presented were not accepted by the Group of 77 and China. Later EU also denounced the documents.

Canada had called more ambition from China and India. This was done by name, which is not very politically correct – especially from a country like Canada, which has notoriously low ambition. They were just awarded the fossil of the year award from being the biggest obstructor in the negotiations in 2011.

So new text went into drafting, we’ve been waiting in the conference centre. Now the latest update just came out – the ministerial Indaba will convene again at midnight (in 1 hour). There will be a new text, and there are promises for improvements in the time-frames, ambition and the legal form in that text.

The COP will not reconvene before 10 tomorrow morning. Seems that if the COP is going to be decided in the wee hours of the night, those meetings are either closed to us, or they will happen tomorrow night.

I just hope that the first drafts that were circulated around the conference centre relatively widely, were not just laying down the groundwork for a compromised deal. Circulating bad drafts like that might prepare the crowd for a deal that is an improvement over the first round, but still far from ideal. But this might be just the skeptic in me speaking.

As of now, the security wants to empty the whole conference centre. We are trying to negotiate to have the right to stay. Might be that everyone is thrown out. Ministerial negotiations are just about to begin and civil society is pushed out on the streets. Does not look good in terms of transparency…