Make It Happen Video

By Tara Allen

Here’s a video that Graham and I participated in at Klimaforum on Young and Future Generations Day.
Click here to watch the video.

The [im]possible outcome of Cancun

-by Juan C. Soriano

At the beginning of the conference I wrote about countries coming to Cancun with low expectations but hoping to agree to a balanced outcome – in other words a balanced package of decisions involving mitigation, finance, accountability (Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable or MRVs in UN lingo), and the legal form of the outcome.

The negotiations are in their final stages here in Cancun. COP president Patricia Espinoza has less than 24 hours to meet the deadline she posed to the plenary a couple of days ago. She told parties she expects an almost finalized document by tomorrow Friday at 9am and the parties to finalize its work that day by 6pm.

This is an overwhelming task when key elements in the negotiations have not made much progress since yesterday. An agreement on protecting natural forests is also stalled. In this blog, I want to outline the most positive and realistic scenario that could still come from these negotiations.

Mitigation: Countries agree to avoid warming beyond 1.5 degrees C and to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350ppm.

Finance: Countries establish a climate change fund under the Convention with an executive board that ensures equitable representation among countries and gender balance. The World Bank is out of the question.

Accountability: An agreement by parties which honors the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. This agreement should also build on the modalities for measuring, reporting, and verifying mitigations actions already in the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

Legal Form: Parties agreeing to a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and a mandate to finalize a second legally binding instrument under the convention by COP17.

In my view, any outcome that falls short of this is not meeting the already low expectations for the negotiations.

Wikileaks, the Climate Cables

-by Graham

One of the things I’ve been working on over these past few weeks is sifting through the cables in Wikileaks, searching for information about how different countries were dealing with the post-Copenhagen situation. I’ve been passing this information on to Doreen so that her colleagues can work on bringing these to a larger audience. Along the way I’ve found some pretty disheartening stuff. It seems as though over the past year, the US and the EU have totally lost interest in any kind of genuine transparent diplomacy on Climate Change. The French Environment Minister Jean-Louis Borloo said that it would be up to the major heads of state, (specifically of eight or ten, from Germany and France for Europe, the US, China, India, Brazil, Algeria, and Ethiopia* and possibly South Africa) “Once these leaders, working through their sherpas or personal representatives agree on an implementation plan for Copenhagen, it will be largely acceptable to, and accepted by, the rest of the world, and can then be returned to a UN forum to be finalised.” If you take a close look at this list, you’ll notice that the interests of least developed countries and small island states are not taken into account. Ethiopia is also now known to have been bought out by the US through diplomatic pressure and development aid in order to support the Copenhagen Accord, fragmenting a united voice from the African Group.

The initial fear about Wikileaks here in Cancun was that they would come to overshadow any real negotiations going on about things that mattered, much like ‘Climategate’ wasted everyone’s time last year. What Wikileaks has revealed however, is extremely relevant to the way the negotiations are going on, it speaks to the major issues of transparency that have been raised and are still ongoing as small, high-level, ‘green room’ discussions continue. Evo Morales, President of the wonderfully titled ‘Plurinational State of Bolivia’ just addressed the COP a couple of hours ago, and Bolivia is calling for a return to party-driven negotiations.

When you read the Wikileaks cables related to climate, what you see is a classic picture of American politics. On the surface, the US claims that they are leading the way to a realistic climate deal that everyone can work together on. Once you get anywhere underneath this superficial veneer, you notice that the US develops a position that is in their immediate economic best interest, and bullies other countries until they concede. The US and its climate allies (Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and now Russia and sometimes the EU) have developed this strategy so that the blame for climate change is placed anywhere but on them. They have tried China, Bolivia, civil society, and the UN processes, all in the hope that people don’t notice that they are the ones blocking progress for everyone else, simply because there is a lack of political will domestically. Wikileaks cables have clearly shown that by buying out countries like Ethiopia, the Maldives, and nations in the EU they are no longer world leaders but are dragging their heels and don’t want to be caught doing so. If the US isn’t ready, so be it, but it would be nice if they let everyone else get on with their jobs and didn’t spoil these negotiations for everyone else. It is time that the US took a backseat in climate negotiations, where they belong, and let the real agents of change do the negotiating.

Update: Evo Morales to speak at Via Campesina

-Mariana

“Si nosotros mandamos a la basura el Protocol de Kyoto, seriamos responsables de econocidio, ecocidio, y genocidio”

“If we toss the Kyoto Protocol in the garbage, we would responsible for econo-cide, ecocide, and genocide”

-President Juan Evo Morales Ayma of Bolivia

Just a few minutes ago, a large part of the CoA delegation gathered at Cancun Messe around a live video feed to watch Bolivian President, Juan Evo Morales, make a statement at a plenary in Moon Palace. Though he wasn’t personally invited by the Mexican government, who invites those ministers it feels will be conducive to the negotiations, Morales was still able to speak to an approving audience at the Moon Palace and Cancun Messe.

Later today, President Morales will be speaking at a La Via Campesina event which will be attended by  many of the CoA delegates.