unF**C our future

-nathan thanki

So while the AWG-KP plenary is suspended for Parties to get their heads together, let’s have a little fun. Late one night in the first week a few of us were sitting round the table of Hippo Hide backpackers. Samuli came in shouting about final outcomes, and we decided to all write down our predictions and keep them for the final night.

Well that night is now upon us friends. Here are our predictions. They’re all pretty grim, so we’re hoping against hope to be way off the mark.

Nathan: KP-2 will go ahead, with no/little reductions. Some sort of GCF will get approved – an empty shell, and some big concessions for developing countries. The price of this is that LCA will yield a new mandate for a climate regime involving all countries. India and China will be blamed. TEC and Adaptation Committee could go through but will be undermined later.

Graham: LCA will give us mandate for bottom up approach involving China, India, US. There will be a political KP-2, with more markets. India will lead blocking and get blamed. Loss and damage work programme will go through, NAPs won’t, Adaptation Committee will be blocked by SICA, there’ll be no GCF, the Adaptation fund is empty. Africa will sell out.

Samuli: We’ll get a political KP-2. LCA will be concluded with a durban mandate, consisting of 3 pillars: mitigation, adaptation, poverty eradication. To be concluded by 2015. The GCF will be established.

Anjali: KP-2 will happen. the BAP will continue but with more parties doing pledge and review under LCA (2018-2020). Japan and Canada will be doing that. The shared vision will be weak. The GCF will get established, but with too much private sector involvement and a private sector facility. The TEC will be launched, also with much private sector involvement.

Ethan (from SustainUS): The LCA will go out the window. There won’t be a KP-2. But CDM will be around for a while. GCF won’t be operational. There will be a 2nd transitional committee to re-design the GCF.

 

Currently it looks bad. Really bad. There are three options.

1. Collapse. Copenhagen take 2.

2. COP17 bis. In 6 months or so we’d have a resumed session to try and get it right.

3. The Durban Mandate gets pushed through as is. It’s the end of the UNFCCC (and the world) as we know it.

An appeal to sanity

by nathan thanki

Yesterday, a large group of civil society–mostly youth–took the voice and anger of the street into the halls of the UN. While it could never have been a true #occupy–COP is inherently segregated into those with badges and those without; those with pink badges and those with yellow–the idea was still to say: enough is enough. You have had 20 years to negotiate a fair, ambitious, legal treaty. You have failed. We pass a vote of no confidence in you, governments of the developed world.

While there aren’t always clear good and bad guys in these negotiations (despite the US and Canada’s best efforts to be the absolute worst), there is a clear divide of North and South. The North has historically exploited the South, and has historically used up it’s share of natural resources and atmospheric space. All at the detriment of the South. All you need to do is see a flow chart diagram of money, trade, and resources to see. The wealth of the world accumulates in Europe, in North America, in Australia and Japan. But they can’t afford to pay for adaptation and mitigation? They tell the poor of the world to do it for themselves. They’ve gotten rich from burning mountains of coal and oceans of oil, but now they refuse to cut their emissions unless the poor take that burden too? Civil society is divided over whether or not this is a fair ask. The calls for “treaty now” are fine - so long as it is a fair treaty. The concern that some NGOs have is that demanding a treaty by 2015 for everyone is asking India and China to write off their hopes of tackling poverty. More than that, because of low ambition and loopholes, it writes off all our hopes of a livable world in the future.

The media, eager to feed the hatred that Europeans and Americans seem to have toward any kind of competitor – India, China, Iran, Brasil etc – are running with the theme: blame the big developing nations. The EU is loving this. They can split G77 unity by appropriating the calls of the island states and LDCs for emissions reductions, and point the finger at India. Some elements of civil society are helping: Avaaz ran an ad in the Financial Times that showed Africa burning, while grim reapers from USA, Canada, Russia and India floated overhead. So the march yesterday was somewhat split. There were back and forth shouts of “treaty now” and “equity now.”

As well as substantive differences, there were also procedural ones. Most of us were ready to get kicked out, to lose our badges, to stay there all night if need be. The whole point was to bring our voice to the door of the plenary. So most of us rejected the idea of moving the protest outside in exchange for no repercussions. Besides, I for one did not believe the UNFCCC secretariat and security. They’d tell you anything, sure. But then voices from within the protest began sowing the seeds of doubt. “You will not be able to come to subsequent COPs.” “You will be arrested by the South African police for trespassing.” The pressure to leave was too great. We weren’t kettled in, so the protest disintegrated until there were a few dozen left, stubborn as mules, to be removed by the guards. We let our protest be appropriated.

The same must not happen to our message. I understand that the Avaaz blunder is causing them some grief, but it was only an expression of an idea that seems to be gaining ground among civil soceity – that the blockers should be blamed and shamed. But, wouldn’t you block a suicide pact? It is better to frame it like this: who does a block actually benefit? Not China, not India, but the developed nations. Europe and the States, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. If it all falls to pieces, then hey presto – they don’t have to live up to their promises, and they don’t have to fulfill their responsibility. If it goes through as it stands, then it’s curtains for ambition, it’s curtains for AWG-LCA, and it’s curtains for the planet. The islands will sink, Africa will burn, the political status quo will remain. We can’t let our planet be taken hostage by the greedy, just like we can’t let our democracy be taken hostage by the greedy. Greed is the right term. Notice how the only thing the rich countries want to share with the poor is the responsibility to reduce emissions. They do not want to share their wealth, their technology, their patented intellectual property.

We should not help perpetuate the lies of the rich and powerful.

I implore activists and others engaging in the struggle to think.  Think about who you represent and how. When you find yourself talking about urgency in the negotiations, ask; where are we urgently going, and who gets hurt aslong the way? Who suffers from a “better than nothing” EU deal? Think about who has already suffered from climate change. Think about who has already acted to stop it. Then think about who the real blockers are. Please consider the true grassroots. The millions living in poverty in India, China, Brazil. Are you seriously going to condemn them to death? Or are you going to stand with them against the real polluters?

COP-upy

by Nathan Thanki and Trudi Zundel

Last week the people marched past the UNFCCC meetings with trucks, horns and speakerphones blasting political messages for the delegates inside negotiating over the future of the planet. No one inside blinked an eye. A crowd of maybe 50 people gathered by the gated walkway to see them march, and horsed policemen barred every potential entrance. We were left wondering why the energy didn’t penetrate the gates, why people inside didn’t seem to feel the same urgency. But yesterday, as the negotiations were heating up instead of coming to a close, accredited members of civil society finally carried the voice of dissent from the streets to the corridors.

Civil society had been quiet, cautious, wary during the first week, but as week two began and the negotiations remained largely closed, there was no way the pressure couldn’t build. The UN has learnt that the best way to silence someone is to engage with them, but sometimes they forget. It began with the Stand with Africa flashmob, to test the waters.  Then the brave Canadian Youth Delegation  turned their backs on the Canadian government, literally rising together in the plenary to defy the shameless Peter Kent. Soon after that, Abigail Borah of SustainUS took it up a notch; shouting over Todd Stern as he attempted to give his plenary speech. “You do not speak for me!” There were sporadic walking flashmobs of I <3 KP shirts, and rumblings of a large action for Friday. When Anjali stepped away from the podium and did a call and response with 50 youth, the message to governments had become clear.

You have denied us a voice too long. We do not need your microphone, we have our own. You will hear us.

By 3pm on Friday, it was now or never for civil society. Up to now only the youth had been raising their voice. But finally the rest of civil society joined us as we carried the demands of the many to the halls of the few. An initial rallying cry mic check went out, and suddenly hundreds of people were marching through the ICC towards the plenary. Delegates from Egypt and Maldives were joined by Kumi Naidoo and other NGO leaders. Banners and placards appeared from nowhere. Jubilee South and La Via Campesina had been protesting the World Bank’s inclusion in climate finance and quickly joined the march through the hall. The UN guards were quick to respond. They had been expecting us. Frankly, it was rude to keep them waiting for 2 weeks. They put on their serious faces. One was in the crowd, stealthily taking badges without asking. That’s how we lost three. Some people (some from earthinbrackets) took their badges off and pocketed them. The march reached a blockade and could go no further. The singing began. Shosholosa, mostly. Cries reflected the fundamental values that all of civil society could agree on: urging governments to negotiate on behalf of their people; respecting the principles of the convention, like historical responsibility; urgent action; and of course the broad cry for climate justice. And although the divides among civil society still showed–some falling into the EU trap of calling for a new treaty that would kill Africa and blame China/India, and some not wanting to get thrown out for protesting–it was still a show of unity.

The protest yesterday may have boosted the energy in the negotiating room for a little while, but the new draft decisions that came out this morning certainly don’t accommodate civil society’s demand for climate justice. I think of it as baby steps, though. Corporate lobby still has more say than us, the villains are still not getting the blame and shame they deserve, polluters are still being protected, and our future is still being sold for profit… It will take a lot more than a peaceful march at a COP to dislodge such a deeply-ingrained, corrupt system. Until it ends, the struggle continues.

Yields of the Night Vigil

by Anjali Appadurai

I started this post at 4am, and worked on it intermittently until now – 9:30am. No new LCA text, no sleep. These ministers worked through the night, and through the documents they released from their “indaba” at a couple of different intervals, we have some meagre updates.

The indaba high-level consultations convened at midnight and are still going strong, with three draft texts produced thus far. They took a short break at around 2:30 but are back to work. Tonight, three new indaba texts were produced, plus an options table, a KP document and a “big picture” text. Discussed below is the “big picture” and the KP text.

Big picture:

The final LCA text was supposed to have been released at 6am, but it’s 7:30 and we’re still waiting. Basically, leaked documents show this “big picture” for the texts so far:

-          The text would end the AWG-LCA at COP18, or at least render it irrelevant because it would set up a parallel track under the Convention

-          The Bali Action Plan will be incomplete by COP18 but LCA will end anyway (ie – a broken commitment)

-          The LCA would be replaced with a new body of the name [XX] thus far

-          This new body would be the framework for creating a new treaty or protocol to address the same concerns as the LCA

-          The new treaty would include the major pillars of the Bali Action Plan (references to finance, technology transfer, capacity building, adaptation), but would not be the same in terms of content

-          There is no reference in the text to the principles of the Convention (common but differentiated and historical responsibility, equity)

-          The text would “call” for a process to develop a legally-binding agreement. Simply being legally-binding is not sufficient to ensure action. There needs to be substance.

 KP

The KP outcome is grim.

-          No second commitment period this year.

-          Rather, the mandate of the AWG-KP is pushed back

-          The text “invites” KP Parties (which now excludes Canada, Russia, Japan, in addition to the already absent US) to “offer” their pledges in an annex to the decision

-          In order for there to be ratification of the Protocol for a second commitment period, Parties must amend and ratify the original Annexes and full text. The text of the Annex B is totally different, and a 2CP cannot be achieved if this Annex B stays.

-          Does not include any text to say that Parties should start to apply the rules laid out in the document before it enters into force officially

-          There is no shared vision; ie, the text allows Japan, Canada and Russia to escape their obligations under KP. Aussie and NZ are only “considering” offering pledges.

-          This text provides a perfect backdoor with a red carpet for Annex 1 countries to make the Great Escape from their commitments

-          Loopholes and weak wording allows A1 countries to increase emissions.