Ministers begin their work

 by Samuli Sinisalo

The ministerial Indaba-consultations about the Durban outcome begin tonight. In front of them, the ministers have five options for the possible outcome. No decision is not amongst them at this level.

The first option is to implement a new legal instrument under article 17 of the convention. This would mean that the contents of the new instrument can be anything – made up in Durban.

Option two is to complete an agreed outcome based on the Bali Action Plan. Then the outcome would build on what that LCA track has negotiated since 2007. It would address Shared Vision, Adaptation, Mitigation, Technology Transfer and Finance.

Third option is to conclude the aforementioned BAP pillars through a series of decisions. This takes into account work done in Cancun and Durban. Fourth option is to implement BAP and the Cancun Agreements.

Option five is to complete the BAP and Cancun agreements through a series of decisions and begin a process to develop post-2020 arrangements/legally binding instruments. These negotiations could either take place in the LCA group, or within a new subsidiary body. Suggestions for timeline vary from 2012 to 2017.

Any of the above mentioned options can be described as a partial success – at least on the surface. What is common to all of them is the lack of ambition. That much seems granted at the moment. Only numbers on the table at the moment are those pledged in Copenhagen and cemented in Cancun. They put the world on a 4-6 degrees Celsius pathway.

Fortunately the EU proposed text today under the KP track that would enable countries to increase their ambition level in future. Similar designs have worked under the Montreal Protocol. But the climate negotiations are currently suffering from lack of political will for more ambitious emission reductions, and a mechanism by itself is not going to change that, or save the planet. It has to be used as well.

Further, the briefing paper for the ministerial Indaba mentions that the common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities might be dynamic. The responsibilities specified for developed and developing countries might be redefined and renegotiated. Up to now, developed countries emissions reductions actions have been conditional on financial support from the developed world.

Friday night will tell what the final package is. It seems that things are in motion in Durban, and something will come out. Whether it is a real solution, or an empty shell is yet to see. There are positive signals for a potential outcome, but the risk of getting empty declarations instead of real solutions is still looming. Total failure is not likely, but neither is complete success.

Global hegemons push through a well-disguised Trojan Horse

Ignoring all evidence that an agriculture work programme under SBSTA is a bad idea,  I’d automatically be wary of anything that the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia are pushing this hard, especially if it’s ‘for the sake of’ developing countries.

 

Cartoon designed by a friend of Teresa Anderson, a woman we’re working with here in Durban.

Options for the Outcome

by Samuli Sinisalo

The last 48 hours of Durban are at hand. Decisions are going to be made, one way or another.

On the future mandate, the LCA working group on legal options for the outcome, came up with a conference room paper yesterday. That paper specified four options for the LCA outcome from Durban. And as we well know, most Kyoto proposals are conditional on what comes out from the LCA.

Option 1 on the paper is: a new protocol to the Convention, pursuant to Bali Action Plan and the Cancun Agreements. Negotiations would be started in 2012, and completed by COP 18 or latest COP 21. The protocol would include mitigation for all parties as targets and/or actions, with MRV and market mechanisms. The protocol also covers adaptation, technology transfer and finance. LCA working group would be extended until the completion of the new protocol.

Option 1bis requests the LCA to complete through a legally binding instrument/outcome. My interpretation of this is, that it is very similar to option 1, but the outcome would not be called a protocol.

Option 2 requests the LCA track to complete through a series of decisions, pursuant to Bali Action Plan and the Cancun Agreements.

Option 3 requests the LCA to continue negotiations.

Option 4 is no decision.

This is more or less where the negotiators finished their work. The issues are not forwarded on to the ministerial level. From here on decisions and progress cannot be technical, but political decisions need to be made.

African Anger at European Calls for A ‘New Mandate’

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Civil society groups attack ‘Durban Mandate’ proposal as a ‘great escape’

DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA – Today – Civil society leaders from across Africa, with support from global movements, launched a letter to climate negotiators that warns that focusing on launching a new mandate at the Durban talks risks backtracking on promises to the poor and the planet.

The letter calls on developed countries to urgently scale up the ambition of their emission reduction targets and reminds negotiators that current emission reduction pledges will lead us to a world that is 5°C warmer. For Africa, this means 7 or 8°C of warming and unimaginable human suffering.

Michele Maynard from the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance said:

“Following what some delegates say you would think that the purpose of these negotiations was a ‘new roadmap’ – that’s just not true. Of central and agreed importance is the need to negotiate deep emission cuts as a part of a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Coming up with new ‘mandates’ and ‘roadmaps’ is a distraction from that very necessary action. It’s also a breach of faith, in 2007 all countries agreed to do this.”

“A climate agreement that does what is necessary to protect Africa is like cooking a good recipe. It needs just enough emission cuts and a dollop of finance and technology for responding to climate impacts. We’ve got the recipe from the Bali Action Plan, we’ve got all the ingredients, even started cutting up some of the vegetables, but now some people want to cook something else. That’s a recipe for doing-nothing and delay.”

“This letter is a clarion call to negotiators – you either see the science and recognize its urgency; or you don’t. You either hear what the world’s poorest people are saying and care; or you don’t. Any outcome which locks in the current proposed emission cuts or puts off talking about how to bring those cuts into line with the science is utterly unacceptable.”

The letter says that agreeing to a new mandate that replaces the Kyoto Protocol would mean action is effectively delayed for five to ten years. A new treaty will take several years to negotiate with several more years needed for ratification. Further, there is no assurance that countries that have repudiated the existing legal architecture, like the United States, will agree to or ratify a new agreement, nor that such agreement will not be a weak and ineffective “pledge and review” system.

While many developed countries seek to end the Kyoto Protocol, they simultaneously attempt to retain and expand their favored elements of the Kyoto Protocol, like the CDM, in a new agreement and shift their responsibilities onto developing countries.

Without legally binding emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries must not be allowed to have access to the carbon markets.

CSO LETTER No Durban mandate for the great escape As African civil society and international allies, we reject the call of many developed countries for a so-called “Durban mandate” to launch new negotiations for a future climate framework. A new mandate for a new treaty in place of the Kyoto Protocol should be understood for what it really is – rich countries backtracking and reneging on “inconvenient” obligations, at the expense of the poor and the planet. While developed countries may appear progressive by asking for a mandate to negotiate a new legally binding treaty, the truth is that this is nothing but a veiled attempt to kill the Kyoto Protocol and escape from their further mitigation obligations under the already existing mandate in the Protocol itself, and the agreement in 2005 for negotiating further emission cuts. A political declaration to continue the KP is, in practice, another nail in its coffin. Anything less than a formal legal amendment and ratification process, will deliver an empty shell of the Kyoto Protocol. Agreeing to a new mandate would mean action is effectively delayed for five to ten years. A new treaty will take several years to negotiate with several more years needed for ratification. Further, there is no assurance that countries that have repudiated the existing legal architecture, like the United States, will agree to or ratify a new agreement, nor that such agreement will not be a weak and ineffective “pledge and review” system. Developed countries must urgently scale up the ambition of their emission reduction targets. As the latest reports by the International Energy Agency make clear, deep emission cuts are needed now to have a realistic chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Current emission reduction pledges will lead us to a world that is 5°C warmer. For Africa, this means 7 or 8°C of warming and unimaginable human suffering. This is why a pledge-based approach with weak review rules, instead of the Kyoto Protocol’s approach of legally binding commitments and international rules that give meaning to these commitments, is completely insufficient to ensure the necessary emission cuts. While many developed countries condition any further action, including fulfilling their legally binding obligations to a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, on greater action by emerging economies, developing country pledges already far outweigh pledges by developed countries. In fact, with accounting loopholes and the use of carbon markets, developed countries could make no net contribution to reducing emissions by 2020. While many developed countries seek to end the Kyoto Protocol, they simultaneously attempt to retain and expand their favored elements of the Kyoto Protocol, like the CDM, in a new agreement and shift their responsibilities onto developing countries. Without legally binding emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries must not be allowed to have access to the carbon markets. Further, with the price of carbon crashing, paltry emissions reductions pledges from developed countries, there is no rationale for the continuation of the CDM or the creation of new market mechanisms. Developed countries must scale up their ambition and stop blaming other countries who have contributed far less to the climate crisis, yet are taking on more aggressive action. Developing countries are living up to their promises made in Bali, while developed countries are attempting to re-write the rules of the game to avoid meeting their obligations. Developed countries are also denying developing countries the necessary finances and technology to address the climate crisis. The provision of finance from developed to developing countries is an obligation in and of itself. It must not be used as a bargaining chip in the Durban negotiations, nor should it be dangled in front of poor countries as a bribe to get agreement for a very bad mitigation deal. The same applies to the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund. Success in Durban depends on the Green Climate Fund not being an empty, ineffective shell. We will not accept a “Durban mandate” or any outcome that locks in the current low ambition and inaction for many years, and condemns billions of people in Africa and across the world to suffer the worst impacts of a warming world.

Signed by: Africa Trade Network
Alternative Information Development Centre
Democratic Left Front
Friends of the Earth International
groundWork,
Friends of the Earth, South Africa
Pan African Climate Justice Alliance
Rural Women’s Alliance
South Durban Community Environmental Alliance
Southern African Faith Communities’ Environment Institute
Third World NetworkTrust for Community Outreach and Education